Even though President Bush's poll numbers ticked up to 41% in the latest Bloomberg Poll, Democrats are looking in decent shape just four months before the midterm elections:

Democrats held a formidable advantage, 49% to 35%, when registered voters were asked which party they intended to support in fall congressional elections.

The survey's results suggested that an old challenge — the gender gap — could pose a renewed threat to the Republican hold on Congress. Although men split about evenly when asked which party they planned to back for Congress in November, women preferred Democrats by nearly 2 to 1.

Not all registered voters are going to cast ballots though.  Those who are the most passionate and upset usually show up to vote in the midterm elections.  So which party is more passionate then?  With all the anger over the war and high gas prices, I'd say that progressives are more fired up.
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Other blogs writing about this issue: On Tap, The City Troll, The Common Ills, Innocence Blog.